Wages, Productivity, and Prices; W. A. Wallis

WAGES, PRODUCTIVITY, AND PRICES t'l W .Allen Watli~ THE LONG and rapid rise in productivity in the United States has occurred not because people work harder-in fact, our grandfathers almost all worked longer hours at heavier tasks than we do-but because people work more effectively. The increase in the effectiveness with which people work results in considerable part from in creases in education, in skills, in health, and in general well-being. The rising quality of the labor force, in short, is an important source of productivity increases. A related source of productivity increases is new knowledge, some produced by research in industrial, university, and government laboratories but much de veloped in an informal way on all kinds of jobs where ingenious people make innumerable small or large im provements in their methods of doing things. Dr. Wallis is Special Assistant to the President of the United States and Executive Vice-chairman of the Cabinet Committee on Price Stability for Economic Growth, on leave as Dean of the Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. This article is from his remarks of November 19, 1959, before the National Industrial Conference Board at Chicago.

354 WAGES" PRODUCfIVITY" AND PR.ICES 855 Productivity increases also as more and better capital equipment is used. One man with a steam shovel can move more earth than many men using only hand tools. Even without improvement in the quality of equipment, an increase in the amount used can bring a rise in out put per man-hour. In general, however, as we accumu late capital, we incorporate in it the findings of research, so that we have not only more but better capital equip ment. But capital includes more than just tools and machinery. For example, the improvement of roads, har bors, communication networks, water supplies, and sani tary facilities can all contribute to rising productivity. Just as the tools with which people work are impor tant to their productivity, so too are the natural re sources at their disposal. Ask a farmer about the impor tance of good land or a miner about the importance of the richness of the seam he works. The discovery and development of more and richer natural resources re sults in increased productivity.

Improve Management Increased productivity also results from more effective organization of human and material resources, so that each input is used where it can produce the most value. The organizing job is performed mostly by man agement,and improved methods of management in crease the rate of growth in productivity. An important contribution of managers is in seeking and developing new products and new methods, and especially in risk356 W. ALLEN WALLIS ing the funds necessary to try innovations that often prove costly failures. The responses people make on their own initiative to differences in wages and prices also result in labor, capital, and natural resources mov ing toward their most effective uses. As manpower shifts from, or. avoids,low-productivity jobs where pay must be low, and moves to high-produc tivity jobs where pay is higher, productivity increases for the economy as a whole, even though produc~ivity in each industry separately may .remain unchanged.

Similarly, the efforts of owners of capital and natural resources to get a high return lead them to employ their property where the demand for it is greatest. Competi tion .for the buyer's dollar and the incentives offered in a free economy by wages, prices, and profits play a vital role in directing our efforts and stimulating efficiency, as well as in. rewarding them. Increases in productivity arise, then, from the efforts of people in all walks of .life. They are not attributable to any single group. Even a group whose measured pro ductivity happens to be rising cannot necessarily claim special credit, for its rises may be due primarily to in creases in the quantity and quality of the people, capi tal, natural resources, management, and· technology with which it works. Labor, capital, natural resources, man agement, and technology jointly produce our output, and an increase in the quantity or quality of anyone of them will increase the output per unit of input of the others.

The various measures of productivity all give us some WAGES, PRODUCfIVITY, AND PRICES 357 insight into the process by which our. standard of living rises, and they therefore have some bearing on the average gains that workers can expect to obtain through increases in average earnings or decreases in average consumer prices. In evaluating specific wages and sal aries, however, there is no similar rule or formula of broad applicability. Productivity Varies Amon,g Industries One important barrier to any general rule is that pro ductivity and its growth, however measured, vary tre mendously from industry to industry. There are many reasons why productivity increases more rapidly in some industries than in others. New in dustries typically present many opportunities for im provement, since as they grow, economies are realized from mass-production or simply from new ideas. New technology and new resources affect some industries more than others. Arrangements by governments, labor, or management stimulate productivity gains in some in dustries but retard them in other industries. Many di rect-service industries are by nature difficult to change; for example, productivity cannot be expected to rise as rapidly in barbershops as in automobile factories.

If wages were tied to output per man-hour, industry by industry, the result would be both unfair and im practical. Wages would go up rapidly in some indus tries, stay about the same in others, and even decline in a few.

358 w. ALLEN WALLIS Since many occupations and types of jobs are found in virtually all industries, people doing the same work would receive different pay. In fact, many plants pro duce. in several industries, so wages might differ for the same work in the same plant. Industries with constant or only slowly rising wages would have more and more trouble persuading people to work for them, while peo ple would he on waiting lists to work in the high-wage industries. Also, tying wages to output per man-hour in each in dustry would reduce the incentive to industry to intro duce the innovations which raise productivity in the first place, and would discourage expansion in the suc cessful industries by preventing exceptional productivity from being fully reflected in reduced costs and prices. Thus, if wages are not tied to the productivity of in dividual industries, the outcome is likely to be more equitable and more practical. The ordinary processes of wage determination and of choosing among jobs once rates of pay are established, tend to bring about roughly equal pay for equal work.

Not only would it be impractical to tie wages in each industry to productivity in that particular industry, but it would also be impractical to tie wages in each indus try to average productivity in the whole economy. This would ignore differences in the need for labor and in its availability. In an expanding area, industry, or oc cupation, employers frequently raise wages more than the national average increase in output per man-hour. These large wage increases serve the useful purpose of WAGES" PRODUcrIVITY" AND PRICES 359 inducing labor to enter the area, industry, or occupa tion in question, and they help pay moving or retraining costs. In a declining area, industry, or occupation, a chronic labor surplus may· develop, and attempts to in crease wages in line with the national average increase in output per man-hour would reduce employment op portunities and make it less likely that new industries would move into the areas of labor surplus.

These considerations and many others like them make it clear that it is difficult or impossible to prescribe gen eral criteria for proper rates of wages and salaries. Those on the spot with knowledge of all the special circum stances must find the best solution for each case. For the Economy as a Whole Even though the special circumstances surrounding each particular wage or salary may make it impossible to judge anyone rate, certain judgments can be made about the general or average result of all the separate rates. There is here an analogy with judging baseball players: the shortstop, for example, is not necessarily causing a game to be lost if he scores fewer runs than the opposing shortstop; but the team as a whole certainly loses if it scores fewer runs than the opposing team as a whole. In wage negotiations as in baseball, even though we have no clear-cut criterion for evaluating anyone con tributor to the total result, we can apply certain clear cut criteria to the total result.

For the economy as a whole, .productivity is related to 360 W. ALLEN WALLIS wages in the following broad terms: If the average level of prices is to be reasonably stable, wages can rise only as much as productivity, appropriately measured, rises. (Increases in the total share of national output going to wage and salary earners do· modify this assertion; but such changes are so slow and the possibilities for further increases from the present 80 per. cent are so limited that they can be overlooked in discussing short run practical questions.) Productivity, and changes in productivity, throw little light on what wages should be, or what changes in wages should occur, in any particular job, firm, industry, oc cupation, or region. Above-average increases in produc tivity in anyone industry, for example, may to some extent raise wages in the industry, to some extent increase employment in the industry, . to some extent decrease employment in the industry, to some extent increase output in the industry, . to some extent lower prices in the industry, to some extent raise wages in other industries which compete for similar workers, . . . to some extent lower wages in other industries, to some extent raise prices in other industries, to some extent lower prices in other industries.

The extent to which each of these adjustments is ap propriate in any instance depends on literally thousands of details and special circumstances, and can best be worked out by individuals who have freedom and op portunities to choose among jobs and among the goods WAGES) PRODUCTIVITY) AND PRICES 361 and services they buy. Since the public interest may be little concerned with each separate adjustment in each instance, and since the maintenance of free institutions and free collective bargaining are paramount goals of public policy, attainment of the appropriate over-all result for the whole economy must be sought by con trolling. the environment in which wage and salary negotiations occur. Maintaining a Prope.rEnvironment The key to a proper environment is to maintain a legal and institutional framework such that the self interest of each party is either consistent with the public interest, or else is balanced and checked by opposing interests of other parties. If excessive wage and price increases would cause severe losses of employment, sales, and public good will, for example, one side or the other will resist them. Where excessive concentrations of power in the hands of labor or business produce too many results or an average result contrary to the public interest, remedies should be sought through eliminating the power to injure the public interest, rather than through direct control of unions, businesses, or collec tive bargaining.

Another important key to an environment which will hold wages and salary settlements in line with the public interest is sound management of money, budgets, and debt by governments. When mismanagement creates pervasive inflationary pressures, little success can be 362 W. ALLEN WALLIS achieved by those who attempt to hold down particular wages or prices, for neither party to transactions gains any advantage from preventing increases-and to the extent that they do succeed they may do as much harm as good, since "grey markets" appear under these conditions. Productivity is the basis of prosperity. Increases in productivity, on which depend the rapid improvements that characterize the American standard of living, spring from many different sources: more effective workers, more and better capital equipment, better natural re sources, better management, new knowledge and tech nology, and a social organization which affords broad opportunities, encourages competition, and provides in centives and rewards to individuals for efficiency, thrift, and industry.