The Theory of Economic Development

T HIS book is the outcome of an invitation by the Warden and Fellows of All Souls to deliver the Chichele Lectures for 1966. The lectures as delivered were four in number. But since then I have added three more in order to make the coverage more adequate. My objective is very limited. I concentrate solely on the history of the main propositions of the theory of development·as they would apply to a closed economy: I make no attempt to deal with international trade or finance in this connection. Moreover, even within this area, there is a further limitation. As I explain at some length in the opening lecture, the propositions which I discuss relate to the broad problem of why development takes place: they do not deal with the more detailed problem of the exact path that it may follow. To use technical jargon, I am concerned with the comparative statics, rather than the dynamics, of the subject. The reasons for this limitation are twofold. First the lectures were on a foundation traditionally dedicated to history; and dynamic theories of growth are essentially a contemporary development which to discuss in the requisite detail would have been inappropriate in such a context. Secondly, while these developments are of great intellectual interest, at their present stage they offer very little. guidance for broad speculation concerning human progress, still less for practical policy. The statical parts of the theory, however, which are the main substance of the historical discussions, while clearly limited in immediate applicability, have a more obvious reference to reality. Moreover, in the excitement of current speculation, it is possible that they may be neglected. Keynes once remarked that he did 'not know which makes a man more conservative, to know nothing but the present or nothing